As President Biden’s agenda on infrastructure and family investments slowly moves forward, it’s time for Democrats to consolidate their electoral strategy ahead of the crucial 2022 midterms. Although the prognosis looks grim more than a year out—given historical midterm patterns and Democrats’ ultra slim margins in the House (and Senate)—it is not impossible for the party to hold the line against Republican incursions.
But this requires clear-eyed thinking and practical steps to advance what is needed to hold on.
It is not the time to entertain a series of politically illogical steps such as moving sharply to the left on policy or ignoring the need to appeal to working- and middle-class voters across the country—both base and persuasion voters—with an agenda focused on pandemic control, economic recovery, and culturally moderate positions closer to the values of median voters in these swing districts.
The political reality facing Democrats is stark. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) “Frontline” districts for protecting the majority include 6 seats that Donald Trump won in 2020, and 13 seats that Joe Biden won by less than 5 points. Data presented to Roll Call from the DCCC also shows that 18 frontline Democrats won their own elections by less than 5 points. And the results of reapportionment and redistricting will likely make things even worse for Democrats.
As election gurus Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik showed in May, Republicans are currently defending only 2 real toss-up seats compared to 19 for Democrats — prior to any redistricting chaos.